GLOBAL STABILIZATION TRENDS OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Keywords:Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic, Coronavirus 2019-nCoV, Statistical methods
Background. The coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic is of great concern. A detailed scientific analysis of this pheno-menon is still to come, but now it is urgently needed to evaluate and compare the disease dynamics in order to im-prove the quarantine activities and the level of individual protection, to speed the rate of isolation of infected per-sons, etc. In mid-March 2020, the WHO reported a sharp exponential increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the world. Therefore, the study of the dynamics of the pandemic continues to attract the interest of researchers. Some works on comparing the epidemic dynamics in Italy, mainland China, Spain, Germany, France, Switzerland, USA, South Korea and some global trends have already been published. However, the receipt of new data requires constant analysis of the pandemic dynamics.
Objective. In this paper we compare the pandemic dynamics in March and April, 2020 for different countries in Eu-rope, USA, regions and worldwide and try to estimate some global trends.
Methods. We use official data about the accumulated numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases in different countries and worldwide from WHO daily situation reports. In order to compare the epidemic dynamics in different countries, different time synchronization procedures and comparing with the exponential growth are used.
Results. For Italy, Spain, Germany, Switzerland, France and USA, the epidemic dynamic in March, 2020 was com-pared with the situation in the Republic of Korea. The epidemic developments in Ukraine, Austria, their neighboring countries and global trends were analyzed.
Conclusions. The situation with the COVID-19 pandemic is still threatening. But may be the dynamics in April, 2020 gives some hope for its stabilization at least in the countries with proper quarantine measures, fast detection and isolation of sick persons. The final sizes and durations of epidemic can be very different for different countries. Repeated outbreaks are possible and already occurring, but they will no longer be so severe, primarily because we have learned to better identify and isolate infected persons.
World Health Organization. “Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports” [Online]. Available: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/
I. Nesteruk, “Coronavirus epidemic outbreak in Europe. Comparison with the dynamics in mainland China”, KPI Sci. News, no. 1, pp. 15–17, 2020. doi: 10.20535/kpi-sn.2020.1.198043
Y. Li et al., “COVID-19 epidemic outside China: 34 founders and exponential growth”, MEDRXIV, Mar. 5, 2020. doi: 10.1101/2020.03.01.20029819
I. Nesteruk, “Comparison of the coronavirus pandemic dynamics in Europe, USA and South Korea”, MEDRXIV, Mar., 2020. doi: 10.1101/2020.03.18.20038133
I. Nesteruk, “Statistics-based predictions of coronavirus epidemic spreading in mainland China”, Innov. Bosyst. Bioeng., vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 13–18, 2020. doi:10.20535/ibb.2020.4.1.195074
Y. Liu et al., “The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus”, J. Travel Med., vol. 27, no. 2, 2020. doi: 10.1093/jtm/taaa021
I. Nesteruk, “Stabilization of the coronavirus pandemic in Italy and global prospects”, MEDRXIV, Apr., 2020. doi: 10.1101/2020.03.28.20045898
I. Nesteruk, “Long-term predictions for COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in Ukraine, Austria and Italy”, MEDRXIV, Apr. doi: 10.1101/2020.04.08.20058123
I. Nesteruk, “SIR-simulation of Corona pandemic dynamics in Europe”, MEDRXIV, Apr., 2020. doi: 10.1101/2020.04.22.20075135
A.J. Kucharski et al., “Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study”, The Lancet. Infectious Deseases, vol. 20, no. 5, 2020, pp. 553–558. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30144-4
I. Nesteruk, “Maximal speed of underwater locomotion”, Innov. Biosyst. Bioeng., 2019, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 152–167. doi: 10.20535/ibb.2019.3.3.177976
Copyright (c) 2020 The Author(s)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under CC BY 4.0 that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work