A METHOD FOR ADJUSTING THE SOCIAL TENSION INDEX BASED ON METHODS FOR ASSESSING THE CONSISTENCY OF EXPERT ESTIMATES

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20535/kpisn.2025.3.339188

Keywords:

Social tension, social networks, news event, decision support system, consistency of estimates, an aggregation-adequate level of consistency.

Abstract

Problem. Social tension is the subject of numerous contemporary sociological studies due to its significant impact on the effectiveness of decision-making both at the governmental level and in business contexts. Social tension can be assessed by analyzing public reactions to news events in social networks. However, obtaining generalized estimates of the impact of news events on increasing levels of social tension is complicated by the fact that audiences of different information channels may hold significantly different opinions about the same event. The applicability of methods for assessing the consistency of expert estimates to problems that do not involve traditional expert input remains insufficiently studied.

Objective. To develop and test a method for adjusting the social tension index using methods for assessing the consistency of expert estimates.

Methodology of implementation. The implementation of the method for adjusting the social tension index involves the interaction between the knowledge base of a decision support system and a method for assessing the consistency of expert estimates, based on minimizing the total distance between all pairwise estimates.

Results. A method for adjusting the social tension index based on methods for assessing the consistency of expert estimates is proposed. A procedure for determining a threshold consistency level for evaluating the impact of news events on social tension is introduced. Applying the proposed method for adjusting the social tension index makes it possible to improve the validity of social tension assessments.

Conclusions. The application of the proposed method for adjusting the social tension index based on methods for assessing the consistency of expert estimates enhances the validity of social tension assessments in cases where the consistency index among estimates of news event impacts falls below the defined threshold.

References

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Published

2025-09-30

Issue

Vol. 140 No. 3 (2025): KPI Science News

Section

Статті

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Copyright (c) 2025 Maksym Shchoholiev, Vitaliy Tsyganok

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