CORONAVIRUS EPIDEMIC OUTBREAK IN EUROPE. COMPARISON WITH THE DYNAMICS IN MAINLAND CHINA

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20535/kpi-sn.2020.1.198043

Keywords:

Coronavirus epidemic, Coronavirus epidemic in Italy, Coronavirus epidemic in China, Coronavirus COVID-19, Coronavirus 2019-nCoV, Statistical methods

Abstract

Unfortunately, we can already talk about the coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in Europe. This is evidenced by the large number of confirmed cases in Italy, registered in recent days. Prospects for epidemic development can be estimated from the accumulated information on the cases growth rate in mainland China. Comparison with the data on China will allow us to evaluate the effectiveness of quarantine measures and the level of individual protection, since we are dealing with the same pathogen. This short message provides a simple method of data comparison that can be useful for both governmental organizations and anyone. The first data points for the epidemic in Italy corresponded to the epidemic dynamics in mainland China. Fortunately, the growth rate of coronavirus patients in Europe has not become as threatening since February 29, 2020.

Author Biography

Igor Nesteruk, Institute of Hydromechanics, NAS of Ukraine; Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute

Ігор Георгійович Нестерук

References

Timeline of the 2019–20 Coronavirus outbreak [Online]. Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/timeline_of_the_2019%e2%80%9320_wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

I. Nesteruk, “Statistics-based predictions of coronavirus epidemic spreading in mainland China”, Innovative Biosystems and Bioengineering, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 13–18, 2020. doi: 10.20535/ibb.2020.4.1.195074

Italy Imposes Draconian Rules to Stop Spread of Coronavirus [Online]. Available: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/23/italy-draconian-measures-effort-halt-coronavirus-outbreak-spread

Covid-19 – Situazione in Italia [Online]. Available: http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto

Situation Update Worldwide on COVID-19 Cases [Online]. Available: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/interactive-map

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Published

2020-03-06

Issue

No. 1 (2020)

Section

Статті

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