MODELING AND FORECASTING FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC PROCESSES WITH DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20535/kpi-sn.2019.5-6.176835

Keywords:

Information technologies, Decision support system, Nonlinear non-stationary financial processes, Uncertainties, Financial risks, Modeling, Forecasting

Abstract

Background. The modern financial and economic processes and accompanying risks often exhibit sophisticated patterns, contain non-stationary and non-linear features that require development of special models for their description and forecasting. To solve the problem successfully it is helpful to construct appropriate decision support system using systemic principles.

Objective. Development of decision support system architecture and its functional layout for economic and financial processes model constructing with statistical data as well as financial risk estimation. The system should help coping with possible uncertainties and implemented on the basis of modern information technologies.

Methods. Mathematical modeling and forecasting techniques for financial and economic process; approaches to financial risks estimation using statistical data. The use of modern information technologies for practical implementation of decision support system.

Results. Information technology and decision support system as a practical tool for modeling nonlinear non-stationary processes in economy and finances, as well as financial risk estimation were developed. Experimental results of statistical data processing prove the correctness of the approaches proposed.

Conclusions. The systemic methodology is proposed and implemented for constructing decision support system for mathematical modeling and forecasting modern economic and financial processes as well as for financial risk estimation that is based on the following system analysis principles: hierarchical system structure, taking into consideration probabilistic and statistical uncertainties, availability of model adaptation features, generating multiple decision alternatives, and tracking of computational processes at all the stages of data processing with appropriate sets of statistical quality criteria.

Author Biographies

Petro I. Bidyuk, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute

Петро Іванович Бідюк

Lev O. Korshevnyuk, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute

Лев Олександрович Коршевнюк

Aleksandr P. Gozhyi, Petro Mohyla Black Sea National University

Олександр Петрович Гожий

Irina O. Kalinina, Petro Mohyla Black Sea National University

Ірина Олександрівна Калініна

Tatyana I. Prosyankina-Zharova, European University, Uman Department

Тетяна Іванівна Просянкіна-Жарова

Oleksandr M. Terentiev, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute

Олександр Миколайович Терентьєв

References

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Published

2019-10-15

Issue

No. 5-6 (2019)

Section

Статті

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